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NCAA Tournament Midwest Region analysis: Houston, Texas, Indiana and more

Can Houston get to the Final Four in its home city? If so, the Cougars will have to do it through the Midwest Region — and battle some hot teams and interesting challenges along the way.

Kelvin Sampson’s team, the No. 2 overall seed, could potentially face Auburn in Birmingham in the second round. A Sweet 16 matchup against Indiana and star Trayce Jackson-Davis or a top 10-caliber Xavier team could await. And don’t forget about No. 2 seed Texas, which won the Big 12 tournament and had 14 Quad 1 wins this season, second-most in the country. Or Miami, which was the No. 1 seed in the ACC tournament and went to the Elite Eight last year with most of the same players. Meanwhile, Texas A&M was playing as well as anyone down the stretch, while Penn State nearly won the Big Ten tournament. And they’re playing in the 7-10 game.

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If Houston gets back to Houston, it will have earned its way there.

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1. Houston Cougars

Record: 31-3 (17-1 AAC)

How they got here: Kelvin Sampson has built an absolute monster at Houston. The Cougars made the Final Four in 2021 and Sweet 16 in 2022 and have been arguably the best and most consistent team all season, never dipping lower than 5th in the AP Top 25 or lower than 2nd in the NET. Houston won the conference regular season once again during the final season in the AAC before joining the Big 12, the only losses a come-from-behind win by Alabama in non-conference and surprising one-point road defeat against Temple. Memphis did knock them off in the AAC tournament championship with AAC Player of the Year Marcus Sasser sidelined by a groin strain. With Houston’s home city set to host the Final Four, the Cougars’ season of dominance has potential for a dream ending.

What you need to know: This is as well-rounded a squad as Sampson has ever had at Houston, top 10 in KenPom’s adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies. The always-calloused Cougars are a defensive stalwart yet again, holding opponents to roughly 42 percent in KenPom’s effective field-goal rate and 28 percent from beyond the arc. But they are also dominant on the offensive glass and move the ball well, with all five starters averaging double figures and a pair of shot-making guards in Sasser and Jamal Shead. Sasser missed the final game-and-a-half of the conference tournament, but the hope is he will be ready for the NCAA Tournament. They will need him back at some point if they’re going to make a Final Four run.

Spotlight On: Sasser is the team’s leading scorer, but Jarace Walker is the X-factor that could spur a championship run. The 6-foot-8, AAC Freshman of the Year and future top-10 NBA Draft pick averaged nearly 11 points and 7 rebounds a game while shooting 35 percent from 3-point range. His size and athleticism can change any game and, all due respect to Fabian White, gives the Cougars the type of versatile frontcourt presence they haven’t had over the past two tourney runs.

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Record: 26-9 (12-6 Big 12)

How they got here: The Longhorns finished second in the Big 12 despite a season of tumult and distractions. Head coach Chris Beard was suspended on Dec. 12 and subsequently fired on Jan. 5 following a felony domestic assault charge, which was later dropped. Assistant Rodney Terry took over for Beard and admirably steered Texas to a 12-6 conference finish and 13-8 record in Quad 1 games, including a Big 12 tournament championship win over Kansas. Led by a quartet of transfers — Marcus Carr, Tyrese Hunter, Timmy Allen and Sir’Jabari Rice — the Longhorns will look to improve on last year’s second-round tournament exit.

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What you need to know: Texas is a well-rounded squad with top-20 metrics in KenPom’s adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. It also features a deeper rotation than most teams, with nine players who average double-figure minutes and eight averaging at least 17 a game. It’s a perimeter-heavy offensive attack, led by Carr and Hunter, but one that sores a lot of points either at the rim or in the midrange off of dribble penetration. The Longhorns will need to cut down on the fouls and rebound better if they want to make a run.

Spotlight On: Carr was a first-team all-conference selection, leads the Longhorns in scoring at 15.9 points per game and has the highest usage rate on a guard-heavy offense. Texas will go as he goes in March, although Rice as the sixth-man will be an X-factor as well.

3. Xavier Musketeers

Record: 25-9 (15-5 Big East)

How they got here: Xavier won 11 consecutive games at midseason, the program’s longest winning streak since beginning the 2015-16 season 12-0. The Musketeers, who finished second in the Big East during the regular season, went 7-3 overall against league foes Marquette, Creighton, UConn and Providence — all programs that won at least 20 games. Xavier lost the Big East Tournament title game to Marquette.

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What you need to know: Xavier is a dangerous team because of how well it passes the ball and its efficiency on offense. Guards Souley Boum and Colby Jones have combined for 290 assists, which is a big reason why the Musketeers lead the nation in assists per game at 19.2. Xavier has five players averaging double figures in scoring and ranks among the national leaders in field goal percentage.

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Spotlight on: Boum joined Xavier’s program as a graduate transfer after averaging 19.9 points per game last season at UTEP. He’s been a major catalyst for the Musketeers this season, leading the team in scoring (16.5 points per game) while shooting 42.5 percent on 3s and earning first-team All-Big Ten honors.

4. Indiana Hoosiers

Record: 22-11 (12-8 Big Ten)

How they got here: Indiana opened Big Ten play 1-4 before reeling off victories in nine of the next 10 games, including against No. 1 Purdue. The Hoosiers beat the Boilermakers a second time three weeks later and closed the regular season with an overtime victory against Michigan to finish tied for second in the Big Ten. Indiana lost to Penn State in a Big Ten Tournament semifinal.

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What you need to know: Jalen Hood-Schifino, a five-star prep prospect and the highest-rated incoming recruit in the Big Ten last season, more than lived up to expectations in his first college season. The 6-6 guard from Pittsburgh, Pa., earned Big Ten freshman of the year honors while averaging 13.5 points, 4.1 rebounds and 3.7 assists. He is the first Indiana player to win the award since Noah Vonleh in 2014.

Indiana’s Trayce Jackson-Davis. (Trevor Ruszkowski / USA Today)

Spotlight on: Forward Trayce Jackson-Davis initially planned on declaring for the NBA Draft after last season but returned when he was unable to participate in the draft combine because he tested positive for COVID-19. Jackson-Davis has gone from a good college player to a great one, earning first-team All-Big Ten honors and leading the Hoosiers in scoring (20.8 points per game) and rebounds (10.9), as well as total assists (123) and blocked shots (82) while shooting 57.9 percent from the field.

5. Miami Hurricanes

Record: 25-7 (15-5 ACC)

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How they got here: Miami claimed only its third regular-season conference title in program history and first since 2012-13. The Hurricanes had an impressive stretch run late in the season, winning eight of their final nine regular-season games and all but one of the outcomes were by single digits. That showed Miami’s toughness, a trait that should become evident in the tournament.

What you need to know: The Hurricanes don’t have a profile built in proficiency, except on offense. KenPom ranks Miami as the No. 13 squad for adjusted offensive efficiency but not higher than 86th in any other category and 39th overall. Miami led the ACC in scoring (79.6 points per game), field-goal percentage (48.5) and 3-point percentage (37.2) but was 12th in field-goal defense.

Spotlight on: Junior guard Isaiah Wong was named ACC Player of the Year and posted some of the nation’s most balanced numbers. He led the Hurricanes in points (16.2), assists (3.4) and steals (1.4), and averaged 4.3 rebounds per game. He also shot 45.3 percent from the field, (37.8 percent on 3-pointers) and 83.6 percent from the free-throw line.

Record: 19-13 (9-9 Big 12)

How they got here: The Cyclones reached the Sweet 16 as an 11-seed last year in head coach T.J. Otzelberger’s first season. They followed that with a fifth-place finish in the Big 12 and a 10-11 record in Quad 1 matchups, losing to Kansas in the conference semifinals. Iowa State did reach as high as 11th in the AP Top 25 poll following a home win over the Jayhawks in early February, and nine wins is the most the Cyclones have had in the Big 12 since 2019.

What you need to know: Iowa State likes to slow things down, grinding out possessions on offense and playing suffocating defense. The defense has a top-5 turnover rate and forces teams to beat them from beyond the arc, despite holding opponents to under 34-percent from distance. They lost standout guard Tyrese Hunter to Texas via the transfer portal last offseason, but senior Gabe Kalscheur was second-team all-conference, St. Bonaventure transfer Jaren Holmes leads them in scoring, and Tamin Lipsey earned Big 12 all-freshman honors.

Spotlight On: Kalscheur is the heartbeat. He’s second in scoring at 12.9 points a game, shoots 36.4 percent on 3-pointers and made the Big 12 all-defensive team. The former Minnesota transfer has come up big in some big games, including scoring 20-plus in wins over Baylor (twice), Texas Tech and Villanova.

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7. Texas A&M Aggies

Record: 25-9 (15-3 SEC)

How they got here: By overdelivering on modest expectations, a year after a run to the SEC Tournament title game figured to sneak Buzz Williams’ team into the field of 68 but did not. The way the Aggies have been playing, they’ve look primed to make up for that lost opportunity. Well, until taking an 82-63 humbling from Alabama in Sunday’s SEC title game. But Alabama is on a national championship level right now. The Aggies came in having won 19 of 22 games, including at home last week against the Crimson Tide.

What you need to know: The Aggies won’t impress you with their individual talent. NBA scouts don’t flock to watch them shoot around before games like some teams. There are no sure-fire pros on the roster. The loss to Alabama helped reiterate that. But this is an excellent, deep, well-coached team that gets after people defensively in typical Williams fashion, moves the ball extremely well and has options inside and outside. And regardless of where Wade Taylor IV and Tyrece Radford end up getting paid to play basketball, they are tremendous college guards. They account for more than 40 percent of the Aggies’ scoring and more than 50 percent of their assists. Radford is the only Aggie averaging more than 30 minutes a game. Williams has the bodies to go with full line changes. He has size and rebounding. Mostly, he has cohesion.

Spotlight on: Julius Marble II came to Texas A&M from Michigan State in part to be closer to family, after tragically losing his father to an accident in the summer of 2020. The 6-9, 245-pound Dallas native has impacted the offense more significantly than his 9.2 per-game scoring average suggests. Marble is a post scorer by trade and the Aggies like to hit opponents with touches for him early in games. Opponents without a powerful big to defend him typically have to double him, and Marble is good at creating problems for them from there.

Record: 19-13 (11-9 Big Ten)

How they got here: Iowa has one of the nation’s most inexplicable records. Against Nebraska, Wisconsin and Ohio State — the Big Ten’s No. 11-13 seeds — the Hawkeyes were 1-6 counting their early-exit tournament loss to the Buckeyes. But against everyone else in the Big Ten, Iowa was 10-4 with two-game sweeps against Indiana and Rutgers.

What you need to know: The Hawkeyes have led the Big Ten in scoring the last five seasons and rank third in adjusted offensive tempo by KenPom. They also were last in Big Ten scoring defense and field-goal percentage.

Iowa’s Kris Murray. (Ron Johnson / USA Today)

Spotlight on: All-Big Ten junior forward Kris Murray (6-8) is the only Division I player to average 20-plus points and 8-plus rebounds with more than 60 3-pointers this year. The twin brother of Sacramento Kings forward Keegan Murray, Kris Murray has scored 25 points or more nine times this year.

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9. Auburn Tigers

Record: 20-12 (10-8 SEC)

How they got here: The Tigers might be in a different position if they hadn’t scored the most valuable win on their resume’ in the regular-season finale, dominating down the stretch to beat Tennessee 79-70 at home. That followed up an excruciating loss at Alabama that could have/should have been the resume topper – Bruce Pearl’s angry postgame ranting spoke to both the opportunity lost and his analysis of the officiating. That followed up an 86-54 embarrassment at Kentucky. Of course, that was less than two weeks after an 89-56 home romp over Missouri. This team can cook but doesn’t do so consistently. It enters the tourney off a disappointing 76-73 loss to Arkansas in the SEC Tournament.

What you need to know: Auburn can play some defense and has been in some grinders – such as a 43-42 win over Northwestern in Cancun and a 46-43 loss at Tennessee. The Tigers have top-30 defensive efficiency numbers, but the offensive inconsistency looks a lot like last season when things went sideways, without a top-three NBA Draft pick (Jabari Smith) around to save the day. Wendell Green Jr. is a very good player and fantastic competitor, but 29.5 percent shooting from 3 hasn’t stopped him from taking 139 of them, by far the most on the team. K.D. Johnson has a reduced role this season off the bench but still gets his deep shots up (33 for 101, 32.7 percent). When Auburn gets it inside to Johni Broome and gets more shots for Jaylin Williams and Allen Flanigan, it has a better chance.

Spotlight on: Broome, the OVC Defensive Player of the Year last season at Morehead State, has been a crucial addition. The 6-10, 235-pound sophomore leads the team in scoring (14.0), rebounding (8.4) and blocks (2.3). He’s especially effective facing up and driving, giving problems this season to traditional bigs in particular. Broome is better attacking than settling for triples (27.6 percent on 29 attempts). That’s a recurring theme for a team that shoots 31.4 percent from deep overall.

10. Penn State Nittany Lions

Record: 22-13 (10-10 Big Ten)

How they got here: A week ago, Penn State looked like a about to have its bubble popped. With a NET ranking at 56 and a No. 10 seed in the Big Ten tournament, the Nittany Lions needed a surge to make the NCAA tournament. Well, it came up with one for the ages. Penn State knocked off Illinois, Northwestern and Indiana in the first three rounds before losing to No. 1 seed Purdue on Sunday. It was only Penn State’s second Big Ten championship game appearance.

What you need to know: Penn State is dangerous from 3-point range. The Nittany Lions were only eight 3-pointers shy of tying the the Big Ten record on Sunday against Purdue. They’re not just a perimeter team, either and have developed into one of the Big Ten’s most consistent scoring programs, ranking second in field-goal percentage (46.5), 3-point shooting (38.7 percent) and assist-to-turnover ratio. The Nittany Lions also are 16th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive tempo.
Spotlight on: Senior Jalen Pickett was the most prolific back-court scorer in the Big Ten this season, averaging 18.1 points per game after transferring from Siena. Pickett led the Big Ten in assists (6.8) and was ranked among the league’s top eight in scoring, rebounding, field-goal percentage and assist-to-turnover ratio. He’s the only player nationally averaging at least 18 points, seven rebounds and six assists per game.

Penn State’s Jalen Pickett. (David Banks / USA Today)

Spotlight on: Senior Jalen Pickett was the most prolific back-court scorer in the Big Ten this season, averaging 18.1 points per game after transferring from Siena. Pickett led the Big Ten in assists (6.8) and was ranked among the league’s top eight in scoring, rebounding, field-goal percentage and assist-to-turnover ratio. He’s the only player nationally averaging at least 18 points, seven rebounds and six assists per game.

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Record: 21-12 (8-10 SEC)

How they got here: Other coaches got more attention for their work in the SEC this season – Dennis Gates, Nate Oats, co-coaches of the year Jerry Stackhouse and Buzz Williams – but Chris Jans deserves a hand for taking this team to the dance in his debut season. The Bulldogs got crucial work done with nonleague wins over Marquette and TCU. The latter of those came in overtime in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge and halted a five-game SEC losing streak. League wins over Texas A&M, Arkansas and Missouri after that made the difference.

What you need to know: Two underwhelming SEC Tournament performances, 69-68 over Florida in overtime and a 72-49 thumping delivered by Alabama, leave the Bulldogs with little momentum. But this is an elite defensive team, sixth nationally in efficiency, and that’s the key to any success moving forward. Mississippi State has the kind of length that can bother a lot of teams. Not a team like, say, Alabama, but a lot of teams. That length is more of a factor with deflections than at the rim. That defense feeding transition is needed because this the worst 3-point shooting team in Division I. Dead last at 26.6 percent. The only Bulldog with any success is senior guard Dashawn Davis (36 of 105, 34.3 percent).

Spotlight on: And if a transition opportunity doesn’t present itself, well, throw the ball in to Tolu. That’s Tolu Smith, a 6-11, 245-pound senior and Western Kentucky transfer who made All-SEC first team this season because he is essentially his team’s entire offense. Smith is a crafty scorer around the basket averaging 15.8 points and 8.5 rebounds. He also averages 1.7 assists per game, a number that would be higher if there was more shooting around him. Smith does struggle at the line (58.5 percent), but he still produces there because he’s among the nation’s leaders with 246 attempts.

Record: 21-11 (14-6 ACC)

How they got here: Pittsburgh’s 96-69 ACC tournament exit to Duke made for a nervous couple of days before the selection show. Pitt had an uneven season with non-conference losses to Michigan, West Virginia, VCU and Vanderbilt and defeats in three of its final four games. But the Panthers were only a 3-pointer off the rim against Miami from tying for the ACC title and picking up the No. 1 tournament seed.

What you need to know: The Panthers have scored 75 or more points in seven of the final nine games and rank 25th in the NCAA in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. Perhaps what’s more interesting than any team statistic is that Pittsburgh was picked 14th in the ACC preseason poll and finished one game out of first place. That led to coach Jeff Capel overwhelmingly earning ACC Coach of the Year honors.

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Spotlight on: Guard Jamarius Burton averaged 15.7 points, 4.8 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game to earn first-team All-ACC honors. Burton is only the second first-team All-ACC selection for Pitt since joining the league in 2013.

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Record: 27-7 (15-5 Missouri Valley Conference)

How they got here: The Bulldogs have rolled through the MVC, winning 13 of their last 14 games with a 12-point loss to Bradley as the only blemish. Drake then stormed through Arch Madness, winning all three games by double digits, including a 77-51 blasting of regular-season champ Bradley in the finals.

What you need to know: Darian DeVries has led the Bulldogs to 20 or more wins in each of his five seasons, exactly half of the 20-win seasons in Drake history. Drake doesn’t wow anyone statistically, but it finished in the top three in nearly every Valley category. Perhaps its trademark is its efficiency with a plus-1.65 turnover margin and only 10.47 turnovers per game.

Spotlight on: Forward Tucker DeVries became only the fourth sophomore to win the Valley’s Larry Bird Trophy as league MVP and backed it up by taking tournament MVP honors, too. DeVries (19 ppg) is the son of head coach Darian DeVries and nephew of former NFL defensive lineman Jared DeVries.

Record: 28-6 (15-3 MAC)

How they got here: Kent State and Toledo was the title-game showdown everyone wanted to see. What they got was an eyeful of the No. 2 seed Golden Flashes racing past the No. 1 seed Rockets to the tune of 93-78. That’s a top-40 team in defensive efficiency in Kent State, outscoring a Toledo team that has been around top-five in offensive efficiency this season. That made it two wins in as many tries against Toledo this season and left no doubt who should be representing the MAC.

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What you need to know: Take this team seriously. Just ask Houston, which got into the kind of rock fight Houston likes to get into and had to take it all the way to the end at home to edge Kent State 49-44. Ask Gonzaga, which had to grind out a 73-66 home win over the Golden Flashes. Remember Kent State’s Elite Eight team from 2002? This one could win more than one game in this tournament as well. Kent State is among the nation’s leaders in steals, led by guard Malique Jacobs and his 2.7 per game, and that feeds the Flashes’ transition and 76.6 points per game. Length, depth and deflections are part of the formula.

Spotlight on: His name is Sincere Carry. He may have a genuine hold on anyone who watches him play in this tournament. The 6-1 senior and former Duquesne guard was MAC player of the year last season. He didn’t win it this time around but his 26 points in the title game to earn a bid was a much better reward. Carry averages 17.6 points, 4.9 assists and 1.7 steals a game. He goes by opponents. He outmuscles opponents. And he does it all with flair and emotion.

Record: 26-8 (15-3 Atlantic Sun)

How they got here: The multi-year journey to the first NCAA bid in program history is remarkable, from 1-28 in coach Amir Abdur-Rahim’s debut season of 2019-20, to five wins, to 13 wins, to this. The veteran-laded Owls gave hints of a takeover season in the Atlantic Sun with competitive games at Florida and at Indiana, then ripped through the league and earned the No. 1 seed – and homecourt advantage in the conference tourney – by beating the league’s current flagship program, Liberty, in a Feb. 16 home game. It was Liberty again in the title game, the first sellout crowd in program history (3,805), and senior guard Terrell Burden sinking a free throw with 0.7 of a second left for a 67-66 win.

Kennesaw State is playing in its first NCAA Tournament (Darron Cummings / AP)

What you need to know: This team is built around Burden at the point; big, rangy shooting guards in Chris Youngblood and Brandon Stroud; and space-eating big man Demond Robinson, a Murray State transfer. That’s 48.7 points per game (Youngblood tops at 14.7) for a team that averages 75.3 and plays at a fast pace. Youngblood gets to his spots extremely well and shoots 41.1 percent from 3-point range (79 for 192). He’s also a terrific foul shooter (82.5 percent) for a team that struggles overall at 66.2 percent. Stroud is the 6-6 stopper, the Atlantic Sun Defensive Player of the Year, for a team that plays aggressive man defense and forces 14.5 turnovers per game.

Spotlight on: Burden? More like Blur-den. You won’t find many quicker players than the (officially) 5-10 senior who had zero offers before Abdur-Rahim plucked him from nearby Smyrna. He has grown with the program, culminating in his 19-point output in the title game to claim tournament MVP, and he’s exactly the kind of story that makes the NCAA Tournament what it is. He averages 13.5 points and 4.2 assists per game and defends ferociously. The only part of Burden’s game that isn’t vintage senior point guard is the 67.5 percent showing at the line. That didn’t stop him from making history at that line.

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Record: 26-8 (17-1 Patriot)

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How they got here: Colgate was the class of the Patriot League this year, running away with the regular-season and tournament titles and winning 20 of its last 21 matchups. The Raiders, led by head coach Matt Langel, have made four NCAA Tournaments in five seasons, led this season by fifth-year senior Tucker Richardson, who leads the team in points, assists and steals.

What you need to know: The Raiders have one of the most efficient offenses in the country, leading the FBS in effective field-goal percentage, according to KenPom. Colgate doesn’t hoist a ton of 3-pointers, but they do convert 40.9 percent of them, tops in the country, and are top-10 in 2-point percentage. They don’t turn it over much either.

Spotlight on: Richardson is part of a veteran group, one of four senior starters, and earned Patriot League Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year honors. The five-year starter stuffed the stat sheet for the Raiders, averaging 13.9 points, 5.2 rebounds, 5.8 assists and 2.1 steals.

Record: 22-12 (14-6 Horizon)

How they got here: Northern Kentucky was the fourth seed in the Horizon League Tournament but was in a second-place tie and only one game off the regular-season lead. The Norse had a tremendous last month of the season, winning seven of their final eight games and avenging their only loss with a 63-61 win against Cleveland State in the Horizon finals.

What you need to know: The Norse are a defense-first squad, ranking 29th overall in allowing 63.6 points per game. Their adjusted tempo according to KenPom is one of the nation’s lowest (358th) at 62.2 possessions per game. They also rank 273rd in points per game (68.2).

Spotlight on: Sophomore guard Marques Warrick (6-2) was a second-team All-Horizon selection for the second straight season. He ranked fourth in the Horizon at 19.1 points per game and was instrumental in leading the Norse to the Horizon title with 18 points, six rebounds, three steals and a block.

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The Athletic’s Scott Dochterman, Joe Rexrode, Jesse Temple and Justin Williams contributed to this story.

(Illustration: John Bradford: The Athletic; Photo: Bob Levey / Getty Images)

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Billy Koelling

Update: 2024-06-04